Ukraine

[RyCamp88]

Its disgusting how they haven't been sent help and civilians with no experience, some children and women, are having to defend themselves. But as i said they are happy to go in and blow up countries when it suits.

So we should blow up Russia then? What have you done to help Ukraine today or since the invasion began?

I’m not a government organisation. I’m not denying aid for hypocritical reasons.

[Ollie2UK]

there seems to be a serious case of amnesia going on, folk seem to forget what the uk and the us, along with support from other countries did in the middle east and parts of Africa in the not so distant past, where was the outcry etc then. But Ukraine is being invade and suddenly nobody wants to help incase it starts something.

It's a very fair point, but the problem is that the "something" it might start might be world war 3.

Whether he's crazier than a box of frogs or not, Putin definitely knows the west wouldn't dare go to war over Ukraine. He's pretty much always known that since Ukraine was refused entry to NATO.

It's a mess very much of our own creation, sadly, and the sanctions that are now being applied needed to be applied years ago. As ever, we're too late.

[ladsnet]

Whilst I agree with Rycamp in priniciple, I don't think getting involved in a war with a mentally unstable tyrant who has the worlds largest stockpile of nuclear weapons is a particularly good idea.

[Heinrich]

Dammit I thought we had the most nukes. Boohoo.

[Parsifal]

Sorry I couldn't hear you over us kissing Saudi Arabia's ass and several wars in the Middle East.

You weren't listening.

there seems to be a serious case of amnesia going on, folk seem to forget what the uk and the us, along with support from other countries did in the middle east and parts of Africa in the not so distant past, where was the outcry etc then. But Ukraine is being invade and suddenly nobody wants to help incase it starts something.

Diplomacy is all about spheres of influence and world domination.  Which is why after WW1 during the mandates the British and the French carved up the Middle East the way they did and what the Americans did later.
There are no nice guys in that game.

We just bombed Somalia a couple days ago and after searching for a good reason I could not find one. And we've been doing it for over a decade.

I don't know the answer, but if you look at the map you'll see that Somalia is at the entrance to the Red Sea (remember Moses?) which leads to the Suez Canal, a major shipping route.  Also, Somalia is (or was?) home to pirates which were threatening sea commerce in that part of the world.  A lot of not nice people in Somalia.

All that said, I do find the spirit of the Ukrainian people incredibly heartening. They love their country a whole goddamn lot.

Its disgusting how they haven't been sent help and civilians with no experience, some children and women, are having to defend themselves. But as i said they are happy to go in and blow up countries when it suits.

The U.S. is sending $350 million (peanuts!) worth of military equipment.

It's a mess very much of our own creation, sadly, and the sanctions that are now being applied needed to be applied years ago. As ever, we're too late.

Almost all of the sanctions being applied harm us and our allies too, so they have to be applied very judiciously.  Want to save some for later too.

Dammit I thought we had the most nukes. Boohoo.

Does it matter who has more marbles?  We're both capable of blowing up the world.

[Luckydog2020]

It seems to be getting tragical worse every day that passes ......

[ladsnet]

It does.

I'm awfully impressed by both the Ukrainian resistance and the international (apart from the UK obv.) backlash against Russia.
Both far far greater than Putin bargained on me thinks.

[jumbler]

It’s hard to know how long sanctions will take until the money starts to run out. Putin might declare martial law in Russia tomorrow. Which would not exactly be great for people living there.

Unless the money really does start to run out, people start kicking off and there’s a massive revolution, or if something like a Flight-77-style plane crashing into the Kremlin, it’s hard to see it ending soon.

[pinkpunk]

It does seem astonishing that nobody saw this coming after 2014.

Some of us did. The evidence was out there. Have you heard of Alexander Dugin and his Foundations of Geopolitics? A lot of what he said Russia should do seems somewhat familiar.

We saw what he was like when he attacked Georgia. We saw what he was like when he murdered Alexander Litvinenko. (As with the Skripals, he chose a "laugh in your face" headline-grabbing way. "I can do this. You can't stop me!") We saw what he was like when Anna Politkovskaya was murdered.

In fact, we saw what he was like from day 1. You may not have paid attention. I did. I'm sure many experts in geopolitics and many in ministries of foreign affairs and in intelligence services did too.

'Welcome To Hell, Part II': The Second Chechen War

(In an alternative life I'd have been an Kremlinologist!)

I don't see it as a pissing contest. Putin and his cronies have never accepted the separation of Ukraine from Russia. In fact the other day he blamed the Bolsheviks!

If Ukraine created by the Bolsheviks wants genuine de-communization, this will suit Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday.

"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.

The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said.

"This process started almost immediately after the 1917 Revolution; Lenin and his associates did it in a way, very brutal towards Russia itself - by separating, alienating parts of Russia’s own historic territories," Putin added.

According to Putin, "nobody asked millions of people about anything."

Russia ready to show what true de-communization means for Ukraine - Putin

We want to help Ukraine but don't want to start WW3.

Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in ongoing events from the outside. Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history. We are ready for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.

Now I know how my grandparents felt in the late 1930s.

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Dammit I thought we had the most nukes. Boohoo.

This isn't really the time for cheap jokes!

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I'm awfully impressed by both the Ukrainian resistance and the international (apart from the UK obv.) backlash against Russia.

We were one of the louder voices and most active supporters of Ukraine. Because I didn't believe that Putin would actually do it, I thought Bozza and Sleepy Joe were overplaying it. How wrong I was! But they had access to better intelligence.

When the Germans were sending helmets, we were sending weapons. In fact the Germans were stopping other countries from sending weapons.

Sprichst Du Deutsch?



Helmets? According to Christine Lambrec, Federal Minister of Defence: This is a meaningful signal: "We are on your side." And they say that the Germans have no sense of humour...

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Did people see this?

It reminds me the watching some poor child being humiliated in front of the whole class by a bullying teacher. Can't help thinking: God, they must hate him!

[jumbler]

You do realise there’s a practical benefit to all this?? We'll welcome all those Ukrainian folks so they can take over the jobs left by Latvians and Lithuanians. Problem solved!!

[Parsifal]

It does seem astonishing that nobody saw this coming after 2014.

Looking at the map it now appears that Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 was the first step to prepare for invading Ukraine from the south.  And we thought that Putin just wanted the territory back.  He's been planning this for a long time.  Who's next?  (Moldova looks like easy pickings once Ukraine has cleared the way)

[Heinrich]

I remember at least as far back as 2016 that Sweden resumed drills preparing for attacks from Russia. The theorist correctly predicted exactly this: Putin's been preparing for war for a long time.

[deegee178]

……

I'm sure many experts in geopolitics and many in ministries of foreign affairs and in intelligence services did too.

……

A very interesting post overall  

One such expert is Fiona Hill who has worked in US national intelligence for the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations (and was Trump’s Russia advisor). She definitely saw it coming and gave an interview to Politico this week in which she sets this conflict in the wider global context back to WW1. You can read it HERE

She does concur with what many of said on this post that Putin has been preparing for this. She suggests that what he’s trying to do is restore the previous Russian Empire (that the Bolsheviks broke up) which includes Poland and Finland, which  must surely trigger Western military action if he did invade those 

[pinkpunk]

A very interesting post overall  

One such expert is Fiona Hill … gave an interview to Politico this week in which she sets this conflict in the wider global context back to WW1. You can read it HERE

Thanks!

I read her article. Very insightful.

I worry most about the Baltic States. They're strategically very vulnerable.

(They've been a special interest of mine since the early 70s, because I had an Estonian penfriend. My first visit to Tallinn was in 1977. And I went to all three in 1979. And again in 1992. I wanted to see a free Estonia! And I went to Rīga and Tallinn in 2019. Rīga is a fantastic city! Photos available.)

Hill was on the Late Show:

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I remember at least as far back as 2016 that Sweden resumed drills preparing for attacks from Russia. The theorist correctly predicted exactly this: Putin's been preparing for war for a long time.

Yes. He's scared quite a few countries.

NATO members and other European nations have eyed Moscow's apparent ambitions to expand warily, especially since a 2014 decision to support separatist rebels in Ukraine and annex the Crimean Peninsula. Many European nations—including Sweden, Poland, Norway, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania—have expressed concern that Russia could make similar moves against their sovereignty.

Finland too!

Putin's Russia is a bully!

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Moldova looks like easy pickings once Ukraine has cleared the way

Did you not hear about Lukashenka's map?

Will Russia invade Moldova? What Lukashenko’s apparent battle map could indicate about Putin’s plans after Ukraine

"Moldova is being mulled over" as Stephen Colbert said.

Europe — and the world — owes a great debt to the astonishingly brave people of Ukraine.the



Слава Україні!  Героям слава!

[Parsifal]

I remember at least as far back as 2016 that Sweden resumed drills preparing for attacks from Russia. The theorist correctly predicted exactly this: Putin's been preparing for war for a long time.

Are you sure it was Sweden that resumed those drills?  Sweden has been neutral since WW2 at least.  It's not a member of NATO, but is a member of the E.U.

Finland is a more likely victim of Russian aggression (like Sweden not a member of NATO, but a member of the E.U.)  Finland has a long history of maintaining delicate relations with Russia (and the Soviet Union before it).

Norway could also be in the crosshairs of Russia (but a member of NATO so risky).

I worry most about the Baltic States. They're strategically very vulnerable.

Very vulnerable indeed; and former Soviet republics just like Ukraine, Moldova, ...
BUT, all three are members of NATO which would make it particularly risky for Russia to invade.  Is Putin that crazy?  (Some say he is, that he's lost it.)

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Did you not hear about Lukashenka's map?

Will Russia invade Moldova? What Lukashenko’s apparent battle map could indicate about Putin’s plans after Ukraine

Somebody should remind Lukashenko that Belarus was once part of the Soviet Union too.  Is Putin using him for as long as he needs him?

[Heinrich]

Neutrality wouldn't protect them from Putin. Yes I'm sure it was Sweden. There was also a scare in the 1980s when a Russian sub turned up on a Swedish beach. Anyway Sweden has compulsory military service and an active military for defense.

I'm sure Finland has never stopped preparing for a Russian invasion.

[Welsh Cake]

Surely there must be someone in the Kremlin thinking ‘What the fuck are we doing’? And they must know that if Putin pushes the button, they will also be under attack? It makes no sense.

[pinkpunk]

There was also a scare in the 1980s when a Russian sub turned up on a Swedish beach.

Whiskey on the rocks! I remember it well. Some drinks company ran a jokey ad campaign in the British press.

And lo! This is the first search result.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363

[Heinrich]

Surely there must be someone in the Kremlin thinking ‘What the fuck are we doing’? And they must know that if Putin pushes the button, they will also be under attack? It makes no sense.

It's a late stage dictatorship. Logic will have less and less to do with it the more reality comes into Putin's world. I really hope we can Bin Laden him instead.

[Parsifal]

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC and strong Trump supporter) called for Putin's assassination and got serious push back from both parties.
It's not as if it hasn't occurred to anyone.

Lindsey Graham calls for Putin's assassination