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Brexit
#41
Do we, by any chance, have a real economist who uses this forum/board? I'd love to pick their brain about how this will affect things like the exchange rate after Brexit and a few other tidbits.
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#42
A real economist? Of which point of view do you prefer?

Can Brexit still be cancelled or is it too late?
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#43
Too late to cancel

It can still be delayed if we ask for another transition extension.. citing COVID for example...
But Farage would pop a testicle if that happened.
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#44
No need to cancel anyway!

Come 1st Jan, we'll be a strong indepedent woman, er nation. Our rivers will run with honey, the queen will make every day a bank holiday, Covid will magically disappear, Johnson will be like Churchill but better, the sick will be well, natiions around the world will be queueing up to offer us trade deals where they pay us to buy their stuff, cows will produce milkshake and chickens will lay golden eggs for everyone who wants one.


Rolleyes
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#45
SUNLIT UPLANDS AHOY !!!!!!!
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#46
(14-11-2020, 07:28 AM)Jwb52z Wrote: Do we, by any chance, have a real economist who uses this forum/board?  I'd love to pick their brain about how this will affect things like the exchange rate after Brexit and a few other tidbits.
I’m not an economist, even though I studied it a bit at university. But we seem to have entered some weird sort of parallel universe. What I mean is, things haven’t worked out the way they were supposed to. One of the consequences of (voting for) Brexit was meant to be a massive run on the pound and higher interest rates. But they just haven’t happened, apart from the big drop the morning after the vote.

It’s almost as if the markets and investors are backing off, giving us some space, and not punishing us for having made the “wrong” choice. I can’t see where any of this is going, BTW. It doesn’t stop things tanking in the new year, when tariffs kick in, for example. And it takes weeks to get new supplies from the continent, instead of days.

And interest rates are doing some weird shit lately. Inflation is monumentally low (by historic levels), so they’ve been cut right down to give homeowners some slack. If prices start shooting up due to the effect of tariffs and import costs, inflation would surely pick up and rates would have to rise.

Regardless of whether homeowners can afford it or not.
(14-11-2020, 03:46 PM)ladsnet Wrote: Too late to cancel

It can still be delayed if we ask for another transition extension.. citing COVID for example...
But Farage would pop a testicle if that happened.
I very much doubt it. We missed the cut-off in June, or July. I’m pretty sure the EU even gave us more time (“is that your final answer”??). But the ice cream gobbler said no, and that was that.
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#47
but what about them wanting to sell us BMWs and Prosecco ?

(I'm not a trained economist but I had a full set of NatWest piggies)
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#48
Parsifal Wrote:A real economist?  Of which point of view do you prefer?

Can Brexit still be cancelled or is it too late?
At this point, I wouldn't mind several to get a real answer for the question, if that's possible.
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#49
If the political will was there, it could still be stopped. We're doing ourselves enormous damage by leaving and the EU - whilst nowhere near as reliant on us as we are on them - will be damaged also. If we wanted to pull the plug at this stage, I'm sure that would be arranged,

Once we're out though, it will be a very different story if we ever want to get back in. Just off the top of my head, we'd lose the veto we've always had & I would imagine ditching the pound to adopt the euro would be on the agenda too,

Still, tally-ho!  Woof
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#50
This has also struck me in a completely different context (at work, and elsewhere). Rather than taking accepted wisdom on board (this is how xxx works, this is how we do things), the Government/population thought..l “no, fuck this, we’re going to do it this way” (never mind the fucking consequences).

I’m less upset about losing freedom of movement, but I still fail to see exactly what good pulling out of a single market, tariff-free area will do for the wider economy. Especially when it’ll badly affect service-led businesses.

They are the ones who will suffer.

The immigration side of things will be better managed. You won’t be able to come from deepest, darkest Africa into the UK clutching an Italian passport - or at least it won’t give you and your kids any additional rights. Most of the “Europeans” applying for British passports (for their kids) under Treaty Rights are actually what you’d call third country nationals - just naturalised Spanish/Italians etc.
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#51
(16-11-2020, 11:31 PM)jumbler Wrote: Most of the “Europeans” applying for British passports (for their kids) under Treaty Rights are actually what you’d call third country nationals - just naturalised Spanish/Italians etc.

Source please!
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#52
LOL
Agreed

That is SUCH bollocks. Was it copy/pasted from the Mail ?

(sorry I was late to this discussion. The motorway was full to the brim with immigrants)
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#53
(16-11-2020, 11:48 PM)9in Wrote:
(16-11-2020, 11:31 PM)jumbler Wrote: Most of the “Europeans” applying for British passports (for their kids) under Treaty Rights are actually what you’d call third country nationals - just naturalised Spanish/Italians etc.
Source please!
Work!! I know it’s true, though. ‘Nough said. My agency doesn’t really seem to break down application types. Some MP should ask for the information.

I think people would be shocked if they realised how many British people applying for passports had only just naturalised. Or applying for their kids, so they can stay long-term.

(16-11-2020, 11:54 PM)ladsnet Wrote: LOL

(sorry I was late to this discussion. The motorway was full to the brim with immigrants)
Probably because it is!! LOL LOL
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#54
Ohhh, that's appropriately vague, I totally believe you now.

If your agency doesn't break down application types, and you can really only go on the applications you work on, then how can you know? You can't.

I know many civil service departments apportion work by directorate, block and specialisation (my mum's a Grade 6) so maybe your particular location just gets lots of the same type of application.

But like you say, maybe an MP should get the info, or a FOI request... until then you're guessing.
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#55
(16-11-2020, 06:50 PM)Jwb52z Wrote:
Parsifal Wrote:A real economist?  Of which point of view do you prefer?

Can Brexit still be cancelled or is it too late?
At this point, I wouldn't mind several to get a real answer for the question, if that's possible.

It's not. Shakes
You can get several points of view, but they won't get you the "real" answer.
It's the nature of economics.  It's all intelligent and educated guesswork.
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#56
(17-11-2020, 12:06 AM)9in Wrote: Ohhh, that's appropriately vague, I totally believe you now.

If your agency doesn't break down application types, and you can really only go on the applications you work on, then how can you know? You can't.

I know many civil service departments apportion work by directorate, block and specialisation (my mum's a Grade 6) so maybe your particular location just gets lots of the same type of application.

But like you say, maybe an MP should get the info, or a FOI request... until then you're guessing.
I know what you’re saying, it may not be empirical evidence, stats to back it up, but I’ve worked there long enough to know what application types we get (and it is a lot of years now).

It might be because we only deal with people based in the UK, rather than living abroad. The other offices deal with more of that.
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#57
I see that the penny has finally dropped (with 6 weeks to go) for the brexit voting fishermen, that.. oh what a surprise.. Farage was lying to them and they are well and truly fucked.

LOL
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#58
Parsifal Wrote:
Jwb52z Wrote:
Parsifal Wrote:A real economist?  Of which point of view do you prefer?

Can Brexit still be cancelled or is it too late?
At this point, I wouldn't mind several to get a real answer for the question, if that's possible.

It's not. Shakes
You can get several points of view, but they won't get you the "real" answer.
It's the nature of economics.  It's all intelligent and educated guesswork.

Or, as I like to call it, "arbitrary nonsensical crap" like the idea that money has any intrinsic value on its own since some people assume that.
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